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Volume 5, No. 2,
August 2006 |
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A Bayesian Model Averaging
Approach to Enhance Value Investment |
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Ron Bird |
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School of Finance
and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia |
Richard Gerlach |
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Econometrics and
Business Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia |
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Abstract |
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Simple financial
ratios such as book-to-market are often used to identify value
stocks. This paper examines the extent to which fundamental
accounting information can be used to better identify truly
undervalued value stocks to enhance profit in a simple value
strategy. Gibbs sampling and model averaging are used in a
logistic regression setting, employing fundamental accounting
information as explanatory variables, in the design of an
implementable investment strategy applied to markets in the US,
the UK and Australia. |
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Key words:
model
uncertainty; slice sampler; valuation ratio; forecasting; |
value investing |
JEL
classification:
C11;
C53; G11 |
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