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This research
studies possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US real GDP growth rates.
Asymmetries in these countries are modeled using in-sample as well
as jackknife out-of-sample forecasts approximated from artificial
neural networks. Univariate results show statistically significant
evidence of asymmetries in business cycle fluctuations in all the
series; this is corroborated with bivariate analysis, which also
finds evidence of contagion effects in these countries. |